2011 PERMUTATIONS: WHAT IS THE BUNKER

By Jon Egie, Maro Apoi, Spence Idigri, Onitsha Shedrack

The year 2010 is no doubt a critical stage in the political build up to the 2011 general elections and for Emmanuel Uduaghan is not resting on his oars to clinch a second term in office as Executive gover- nor of Delta State, throughout the length and breath of the Nigeria nation, the year 2010 is going to witness heightened political activities Most political parties will conduct primary elections for those who will fly the various party flags in the 2011 general elections.

The outcome of such elections more often than not determines the shape of things in the general elections In Delta State, since 2007 when the much criticized election that brought Uduaghan to power were held, there had been alignment and re-alignment of forces by political gladiators. Some political heavy weights and groups were either compromised, or disorganized and disememtered on account of the scramble for political patronage, relevance and recognition

But one thing that is working for Uduaghan is his unrelenting penetration of seemingly impermeable or impregnable political cocoons through indepth consultation and taking advantage of the gullibity of the political class. Many Urhobos are falling heads over heels in the sycophancy business in search of relevance and perhaps food.The Urhobo political forum has recently endorsed Uduaghan for a second term for reasons best known to them. And so, Urhobo consultative forum endorsed him recently at a meeting in Sapele, it was not at all a surprise to anybody. The latter group was set to pursue Uduaghan and Uduaghan's interest only, not Urhobo interest. But the sudden display of loyalty to Uduaghan by UPF is only a confirmation of the bread and butter politics being promoted by supposed Urhobo patriots in politics.

Another group that was inaugurated with so much funfare and promise to promote Urhobo interest in politics is the Urhobo patriots led by Chief Godwin Ogbetuo. That Uduaghan has taken Urhobo to the cleaners in the present scheme is no longer news. What is more worrisome is the prospect of Urhobo in an Uduaghan's second term. If that is the general fear of Urhobo, the question is what are the internal and external forces that can compel a change in the politics of the state?

A major external force that can determine the tone of politics in 2011 is the Dr. Goodluck Jonathan's interest via Chief E.K. Clark. Since 2006 when Uduaghan was handpicked and forced down the throat of PDP members as the party candidate, Chief E.K. Clark has been unrelenting in the battle to unseat the Governor. This, he has done through the courts and media war all to no avail. The only opportunity left for Chief E.K. Clark is therefore to wait patiently for the politics of 2011 which has already started, for him to launch a formidable offensive with the much touted baking of his son, the Vice President Goodluck Jonathan.

This indeed poses a serious danger for Uduaghan more so, when the President is incapacitated and the Vice President is likely to call the shots into the 2011 election either as President or Vice President depending on the outcome of President Yar'Adua Saudi Arabia trip which is already in its second month. Sources say the President is on life support machines which suggest total incapacitation. At that stage, he is closer there that here and if the unexpected happens and Jonathan takes over as President, he is likely going to change the face of Delta politics, a change that can rob Uduaghan even of the PDP ticket to run for a second term. Uduaghan's fate will further be complicated with Chief James Onanefe Ibori's rumored interest to become Vice President in 2011. If that is true, then Ibori may not mind trading off Uduaghan so as to guarantee the support of the Ijaw nation as either an Ijaw or Isoko of Delta South is likely to take over in 2011. Even if a miracle happens and Yar'Adua is back healthier than Jonathan, with enough visible strength that can carry him beyond 2011 as President that alone will give Jonathan enough room to pull the necessary strings to foster his nests in Delta State.

By implication, the fate of Delta politics in 2011 is in the hands of Ibori and Jonathan. And there is the likehood that it will favour the Ijaws or Isokos hence the emergence of the Kpokpogris and Angozis among other political gladiators who are already warming up to wrest power from Uduaghan in 2011. The friendship between Chief Government Ekpemukpolo alias Tompolo not withstanding, the Ijaw man will be an Ijaw man when the chips are down in 2011. The dreaded Tompolo can easily dump Uduaghan to support his Ijaw kinsmen when he is presented with the prospect of an Ijaw man in Government House.

Another factor that is going to work against Uduaghan is the docility of his Deputy who has proven himself not to be a politician at all. Prof. Amos Agbe Utuama SAN is said to be deficient with the needed charisma and political drive to promote the Uduaghan 2011 project even in his Delta Central. Critics say the deputy governor also lacks the political clout to carry his people along as the Uduaghan's supposed stinginess has also denied him of the impetus to spread political joy among his kinsmen. The general argument of defense is that there is no money in government. But critics further maintain that if there is no money in the office, then the incumbent should quit so that someone who can squeeze water out of stone can step in to spread government's goodwill among the people.

This is also applicable to Uduaghan who though is seen not to be empowering people, even his commissioners, but has provided so many empowerment opportunities for his Itsekiri kinsmen to attaining stupendous wealth. According to a source close to one of the commissioners from Delta Central, "No Urhobo commissioner can boast of the wealth being paraded by the Itsekiri boys who have been so empowered through award of contracts it was not like this in Ibori days", our source who spoke on condition of anonymity added.

This year therefore may witness some radical changes in the administration of the state preparatory for 2011. we have it on good authority that Dr. Uduaghan is likely to drop Prof. Utuama for a more vibrant running mate who will help drive the wheel of the 2011 election to an expected shores. Whether this could be counter -productive or not, no one can tell for now but suffice it to say that Uduaghan is determined to fight to the end and would do anything that will brighten his chances in 2011.

WhileUduaghan may not have empowered enough people as expected to boost their economic status, it is generally believed that the build up to the 2011 elections will open his hands to release the hidden treasure of the state in order to lubricate the wheel of his second term ambition. But that may be medicine after death as many people are poised to teach him a bitter lesson in 2011. One other mistake Uduaghan made was his lack of confidence in the core politicians. After the 2011 elections, Uduaghan decided to ferry his friends and close confidants in Lagos and such other places to constitute the State Executive Council. Most of these commissioners are not politicians with the intention of making politicians out of them to no avail. These core professionals as he would call them lack the requisite ability to do the necessary damage when it matters most in the Nigeria brand of politics. This may be one of his greatest headaches in 2011. The core politicians who swallowed the bullets from the oppositions, took several risks, did grass root mobilization and transferred the length and breadth of the state for the 2007 campaigns have been left in the cold for so long that many have resolved to ambush him at the political junction of his second term ambition. Those commissioners whom he brought from abroad or such other places may not be able to withstand the storm and fury of the core-politicians whose sweat they are reaping from today.

But the Uduaghan knows where and when to wear his dagger for maximum effect. Sources disclosed that later in 2010, Uduaghan is likely to effect a major cabinet reshuffle in order to plant the core-politicians in key positions to assuage their minds. However, that may not guarantee total support from them as some may have resolved never to work for him again. "it is a case of once beaten twice shy. Uduaghan distrusts too many people and these may spoil his fun in 2011. On the religious plane, many religious leaders have formed the habit of promoting the bread and butter politics by praise -singing Dr Uduaghan to high

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